Sabtu, 12 Januari 2013

[S489.Ebook] Download PDF Making Things Work: Solving Complex Problems in a Complex World, by Yaneer Bar-Yam

Download PDF Making Things Work: Solving Complex Problems in a Complex World, by Yaneer Bar-Yam

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Making Things Work: Solving Complex Problems in a Complex World, by Yaneer Bar-Yam

Making Things Work: Solving Complex Problems in a Complex World, by Yaneer Bar-Yam



Making Things Work: Solving Complex Problems in a Complex World, by Yaneer Bar-Yam

Download PDF Making Things Work: Solving Complex Problems in a Complex World, by Yaneer Bar-Yam

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Making Things Work: Solving Complex Problems in a Complex World, by Yaneer Bar-Yam

  • Sales Rank: #175469 in Books
  • Brand: Brand: AMAZON.COM
  • Model: 1755351
  • Published on: 2005-05-30
  • Original language: English
  • Number of items: 1
  • Dimensions: 9.00" h x 6.25" w x .60" l, 1.20 pounds
  • Binding: Paperback
  • 306 pages
Features
  • Used Book in Good Condition

Most helpful customer reviews

17 of 18 people found the following review helpful.
MACRO CHALLENGES OF OUR COMPLEX WORLD & ORGANIZATIONS.
By Gerry Stern
This book is bound to please anyone who wants to grapple with the complexity of today's world and organizations, and is interested in the truly big picture and issues.

Part I explains concepts central to complex systems, such as: parts, wholes and relationships; patterns; networks and collective memory; possibilities; and evolution. The second and major part of the book focuses on how we can apply complex systems ideas to help solve such major real-world challenges as: military warfare and conflict; health care (the system and errors); learning and the educational system; international development; enlightened evolutionary engineering; and global control, ethnic violence and terrorism. The first hurdle is to comprehend these problems using our knowledge of complex systems and then begin to address them using a complex systems framework.

The book is intellectually refreshing and bold. Its content is expansive, enlightening, and mind-stimulating.

12 of 13 people found the following review helpful.
One egregious math error made me question the whole damn thing
By S Peter Cordner
Dr Bar-Yam's book is a good examination of the problems of complexity and simplicity, and how they interact within a system environment. I found it an interesting read, in that it illuminates a series of general methods of thinking about systems and intra-system interactions. I get the impression this is all very basic systems engineering knowledge and the book has sparked my interest in the field, but as to this particular book I found several unfortunate errors in the book about peripheral topics that make me wonder about the work's examples as a whole.

The two that really caught my eye were an otherwise throwaway bit about Macedonian phalanxes that displayed some ignorance, and...

On p156, in the discussion on how easy it would be to drastically reduce medical errors with one fix, there's a horrible mathematical/probability error. It proposes a hypothetical ten-step process to medical procedures, with a 1% error at each INDEPENDENT step (this is important) leading to an overall ~10% chance of error [no error = (1-0.01)^10 = 90.4%] being applied to the patient. His easy solution is to introduce redundancy at just one step, making that one step's likelihood of error 1% of 1%, or 0.01%; which is a correct construction. However, he then goes on to say that this one adjustment would reduce the total, final chance of error to 99.9%... and this is TOTALLY INCORRECT. It's EMBARRASSING. Such an adjustment would make the final chance of error 8.7% [no error = (1-.01)^9*(1-.0001) = 91.3%], a relative reduction of 9% and an absolute reduction of 0.9%, not his calculated relative reduction of 99% and absolute reduction of 9.9%. He (apparently) incorrectly assumed that this one redundancy would reduce errors at all steps to 0.01%, rather than just one step, and this after stressing that these are independent events. He spends the next two pages talking about how this one single step would be so easy and current reduction methods are inadequate, when in actuality to get his proposed reduction of total error would take redundancies at all TEN steps, rather than at just one. This was the error that had me shaking my head and going back to re-read the passage about Alexander I'd passed over earlier.

It's difficult to stress how fundamentally WRONG this error is. This isn't nitpicking; the nature of following two chapters of discussions about errors and complexity hinge on understanding what are, and are not independent factors. To miss this through goodness knows how many rounds of proof-reading made me seriously question the mathematical underpinnings of what's being discussed throughout the entire work.

While overall the book was interesting, the errors above had me wondering how much of his discussion of systems application to the real world was actually relevant. The topic itself is an engaging one and I appreciate the numerous abstract discussions throughout, but I have serious doubts about the applications and proposed prescriptions for ailing systems that takes up the latter half of the book because I cannot be sure the author and his numerous colleagues and proof-readers understand what the heck they're actually talking about.

11 of 13 people found the following review helpful.
Interesting, clear, powerful
By Mary Ann Allison
"Making Things Work" is one of those rare and to-be-treasured books which 1) addresses serious and difficult problems and 2) is an easy and interesting read.

Bar-Yam applies key principles of complex systems to many of the large and seemingly insoluble problems that we face as a society and gives us a reason to hope by providing new ways of understanding and addressing them. Bar-Yam's approaches are not simplistic panaceas. Implementation requires new ways of thinking and acting.

The only caution I have is that, for most people, it takes time and mental discipline to be able to use these powerful ideas effectively.

See all 17 customer reviews...

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